Juhua Shares (600160) 2019 Interim Report Review: Product Price Short-term Storage Pressure Company’s Industrial Upgrade Continues
The company’s leader is solid overall and has many transition and upgrade strategies in place, maintaining a long-term bullish view.
Maintain the 北京桑拿洗浴保健 company’s 2019/20/21 EPS forecast to 0.
00 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Affected by the price reduction of products, revenue and profit increased in the second quarter.
The company achieved operating income of 38 in the second quarter.
100 million, down 7 a year.
26%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
35 trillion, down 47 a year.
The initial decline was due to short-term supply-demand contradictions and regional transformation, leading to: 1) some raw material prices have increased, and industrial salt prices have continued to decline6.
38%, calcium carbide decreases by 6 every year.
89%, long-term growth of carbon tetrachloride12.
39%, VCM previously rose by 2.
20%, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride decreases by 13 every year.
54%, methanol dropped 20% year-on-year.
10%, 南宁桑拿 phenyl ether decreased by 27.
72%, high-sulphur and high-speed rail growth of 6 years.
48%, fluorite is up by 20 every year.
2) The prices of most products fell: the decline in fluorinated raw materials fell 22.
95%, the refrigerant drops every ten years.
At 72%, fluoropolymer materials decrease by 21 every two years.
09%, fluorine-containing fine chemicals rose 40.
43%, food packaging materials fell 24%, petrochemical materials fell 15%.
15%, and basic chemical products fall by 11 per year.
The overall supply and demand of fluorine resources is tight, which is optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry.
From the perspective of the total supply of fluoride, the output of reorganized fluorite mines has been reduced due to the stricter and severer impact of the Environmental Safety Supervision Bureau. In 2018, domestic production of fluorite concentrates and other products decreased by 17%.
From the perspective of demand, traditional downstream such as refrigerant demand may be affected by real estate appliances in the short term, but in the long term, the demand for fluorine accumulation is increasing; in emerging fields, such as lithium battery materials, fluoropolymers, electronic grade HF and other fluorineDemand is growing rapidly.
Therefore, from the perspective of the total supply and demand of fluorine, the gap is getting smaller. It is expected that the prosperity of the industrial chain will continue to rise, and the products of the industrial chain will be gradually expanded to maintain a relatively long-term contraction and price increase.
The company’s industry leaders are generally solid.
The company is a leading company in the domestic fluorine chemical industry. While expanding the market share of the third-generation refrigerant, the company has also continuously accelerated the development of four-generation new refrigerants.
Under the influence of supply-side reforms and environmental protection supervision, it is expected that some backward production capacity will be gradually phased out, and market share will continue to be concentrated on leading enterprises, and the company is expected to gain more market voice.
In the current market environment where the supply and demand pattern is good, we are optimistic that the company will continue to achieve rapid growth in performance, replacing the leading position.
In addition, the company has established superior industrial advantages, including new fluorine refrigerants, organic fluorine monomers, and fine chemicals, with fluorochemicals as its core, and gradually realized the upgrading of its product structure and the continuous improvement of profitability. The company actively extends to the mid-to-high end of the value of the industry chain.
The company focuses on competitiveness, excellence, and steadily promotes industrial upgrading.
R & D funding 2.
4.7 billion US dollars, continue to strengthen the development of new applications of new fluorine and chlorine materials, new green fluorine refrigerants and blowing agents, fluorine-containing fine chemicals and other new products, new refrigerants and polymer materials are put on the market in batches, and fluorine polymerizationNew technologies such as bio-caprolactam, caprolactam, etc. have been formed successively, new technologies such as fluoromonomer decomposition, PFOA replacement, and high-pressure suspension PVDF have made positive progress.
Investment in fixed assets accelerated, and investment completed5.
7.2 billion, an increase of 89% in ten years.
Focused on the implementation of fluoropolymer, PVDC and other advanced chemical material projects, AHF and other fluorochemical raw materials, the third-generation fluoro refrigerants and their blending projects, the technological upgrading and upgrading projects of existing equipment, fostering new growth points, and accelerating industrial upgrading.Consolidate competitive advantage.
Risk factors: fluctuations in raw material prices; new product substitution risks.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
The company’s leader is solid overall and has many transition and upgrade strategies in place, maintaining the long-term optimistic view of the company.
It is expected that the expected volume of the company’s main products will go up, maintaining the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 0.
00 yuan, maintain target price of 14 yuan (corresponding to 18/16/14 times in 2019/20/21), maintain “Buy” rating.