A-share transactions have broken trillions in three consecutive days
Can the surge in bank credit be sustained?
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Original title: Too crazy!
A-share turnover exceeded one trillion yuan for three consecutive days, and leveraged funds became hotter than last year!
It seems that the cattle have come back?
How long can the type of funds be withdrawing from A shares?
Under the background that the Hong Kong stock market is not optimistic to reflect the economic fundamentals, the A-share market has recently grown repeatedly. In particular, the GEM has hit a record high and has driven the total market value of A shares to a new high.
The trading volume of the two cities has been continuously enlarged. The turnover for three consecutive trading days has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the scale of financing leverage has also significantly exceeded the same period last year.
So, how long can the A-share market be bullish?
Analysts believe that from the perspective of the abundance of liquidity, there may be no systemic risks for the time being.
However, we must also pay attention to some phenomena, that is, the expansion of some ETFs that play a stable role in the market is gradually reducing, and the external market (especially the Hong Kong market) has seen some adjustment momentum.
Therefore, the strong and weak shocks of the market may be difficult to avoid.
The four major factors caused the ferocious GEM to close on February 21. The main indexes of the two cities closed with growth.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3058 during the session.
It retreated after 9 o’clock and closed up 0.
31%; Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.
05%, GEM rose 1.
The turnover of the two cities is 1.
17 trillion yuan, a trillion yuan for the third consecutive day.
The two cities showed a pattern of rising, falling, and falling. The number of houses that went up in the first period was 2,294, and the number of houses that went down was 1,297. However, compared with the previous trading day, the number of houses fell.
The total market capitalization of the two cities also hit a new high, reaching 62.
Judging from the performance of the GEM, it can still be called ferocious.
Disk IT equipment, software services, Internet, aviation, and communications equipment are still the top priorities.
So why has GEM performed so well recently?
Analysts believe that there are four reasons: First, the rise of the 5G cycle has triggered expectations for replacement.
This expectation has major similarities with 2013, and the electronics sector has a significant proportion of the GEM; the second is the rise of the new energy industry cycle, and the new energy industry chain with the Ningde era as its core has occupied the GEM.The share of the share has formed a resistance to the GEM; the third is domestically produced alternatives. Due to some overseas technology blockades, domestic domestically produced alternatives are particularly urgent, and only chips can be used, and the country has invested heavily in this area.Expected formation of slenderness; Fourth, the expectation of GEM reform, which includes both the registration reform of GEM and the refinancing reform of GEM. The former is currently in the pipeline, while othersRegulations were introduced.
The rise of epitaxial growth in the coaxial cable will support the strength of the GEM.
Leverage surpassed the same period last year, but there have also been variables. Many market participants believe that this wave of prices may be due to the continuous emergence of explosive funds, so there will be a scene of recent trillion consecutive transactions.
In fact, this may not be the case.
Except the number of previous account openings reached 1.
Beyond 600 million, there is another data that can explain the problem very much, and that is the dual integration.
At present, the financing balance of the A-share market has also exceeded 1 trillion, and it is still increasing.
Judging from the above figures, its popularity has clearly exceeded the same period last year.
In the same period last year, the lowest level of financing surplus was only more than 700 billion US dollars, and the highest level was less than 1 trillion yuan.
Since December 30 last year, the financing balance has almost maintained the above-mentioned level after crossing the 1 trillion mark for the first time in recent years, and the latest has exceeded 107.5 billion yuan.The highest level in the past 7 years is 2.
267 trillion, the median level is about 900 billion.
Therefore, at present the data is still in a position that is not too high, but not too low.
Financing balance is an important indicator of the activeness of individual investors.
However, some points are that some solid city funds have already evacuated indicators.
From the previous market point of view, when the market is in a big drop, the share of some major ETFs will always increase significantly, and then the market will slowly stabilize.
It can be said that these ETFs go beyond the role of market regulators to a certain extent.
Previously, however, these ETFs showed gains from successive redemptions.
From the perspective of the securities ETF, on February 18, the fund’s total was 164.
400 million copies, but on February 20, there were only 158 left.
200 million copies, two consecutive days of reduction; 50ETF decreased for three consecutive days, from 143 this Monday.
300 million copies, down to 137 on Thursday.
700 million copies; GEM ETF was also 94 from this Tuesday.
700 million copies, to 90 this Thursday.
600 million copies are also reduced for two consecutive days; so are ETFs such as technology and 5G.
But chip ETFs and semiconductor 50 ETFs are still increasing.
It is also worth noting the changes in the Hong Kong market.
Compared with the A-share market, investors in Hong Kong stocks pay more attention to fundamentals, and their investments are more reasonable.
Recently, after the rebound, the HSI has gradually responded to economic fundamentals, and the market sentiment has weakened.
Against the background of the continuous strengthening of A shares, the HSI has gradually weakened.
How long can Agu be good?
From a liquidity perspective, there is currently no systemic risk in the A-share market.
Although it was stated a few days ago that the liquidity released earlier has been gradually restored, the market’s funds are still in ample state.
Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates fell across the board this Friday.
Completely, Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the 10-year main contract rose 0.
40%, 5-year main contract rose 0.
21%, the 2-year main contract rose 0.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remains below 3%, which is an important support for the continuous upward growth of growth stocks in recent months.
In addition, the continuous enlargement of trading volume, and the securities firm stocks that support the broader market also have a basis for renewed upward momentum, thus forming an important support for the broader market.
In fact, the current market is only liquidity-driven (more accommodative currencies, and because January ‘s M1 growth rate was 0, the epidemic has not completely dissipated, and society has not fully returned to normal. In this case, the possibility of a sudden and sudden tightening of the currencyNot high), cyclic drive (5G drive, electric vehicle cycle overlap), the industrial cycle of these two cycles is also intertwined, can form a certain degree of synergy in the market, and a lot of highlights) and episodic drive (already last weekAnnouncing new rules on refinancing), the systemic risks should not appear in the short term.
However, short-term fluctuations may still be unavoidable: First, from the experience of last year, the more the market moves upward, the increase in the 南京桑拿网 amount of entry to the north will be reduced by a few shares, rising slightly, and net selling.On the contrary, strength will lead to it. Second, from the perspective of the economic outlook, due to the sudden epidemic situation, the global economy may be cast a shadow, and the good expectations are not clear.
In fact, if the social normality cannot be restored quickly, the service industry most affected should be a drag on the economy to a certain extent. Slim boots will affect employment and affect residents’ income. Third, the more you go up, the less the impact will be.
If a market is at a low level, there is no need to be afraid of killing and stomping, but when the market reaches a relatively high point, once the adverse factors appear, the shock will be reduced; the fourth is that the opportunity to start construction 北京桑拿洗浴保健 is getting better and better.Funds in some markets will also be diverted for other purposes, and physical potential market funds are crowded out.
Taken together, under the overall expectations, the possibility of a sudden plunge in the market is not particularly high, and the shock up to the end of March may still be high.