New potential of A shares: the long-term technology bull is starting
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Original title: Jing Guan Toutiao | Reporter Zheng Yizhen Hong Xiaotang Jiang Xin An unexpected outbreak of the new crown epidemic disrupted the pace of production and life of enterprises and the people, but also unexpectedly catalyzed the surge in demand for new economic industries.
The number of daily consultations on the online consultation platform has increased, and the 100 billion internet medical market has ushered in the first year of explosion; more than 200 million students have been “online” collectively, and the online education platform has harvested a large wave of traffic dividends; more than 300 million users have resumed work and used remote office applications… Just like the SARS that led to the rise of e-commerce 17 years ago, this new crown epidemic also brought the possibility of “speeding up” and upgrading the industry.
Sensitive capital markets plunged on the first day of 20207.
After 72%, it also skyrocketed “accidentally”. By February 20, it stood at 3,000 points, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded the trillion mark for two consecutive days.
The funds have smelled the opportunity of long-term layout of China’s science and technology industry.
In the 18 trading days from the beginning of the year to February 20, the A-share market quickly switched from consumption to technology.
Chips, semiconductor materials, Tesla concept stocks rose more than 40%, and cloud office rose more than 30%.
The traditional liquor, consumption, and home appliances were slightly affected by the epidemic.
The technology sector market benefited from the rapid shift of offline consumer demand to online. In the view of Sun Jianbo, general manager of China Reading Capital, this transfer has brought about a large penetration of the mobile Internet. For these technology companies, it took many yearsThe nurturing market developed at once.
At the same time, under the downward pressure of the economy, the transition was reduced once after the holiday, and the reverse repurchase and MLF interest rates were reduced to release trillions of liquidity and support the development of the industrial economy.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission loosened its refinancing policy, alleviating the tight cash flow of listed companies under the epidemic and attracting more medium and long-term funds to enter the stock market.
Liquidity has boosted the market’s extreme differentiation, and the GEM refers to the increase since this year (21.
62%) far exceeds the Shanghai Composite Index (-0.
This time the technology bull market is supported by actual business with the support of supporting policies and environmental possibilities.
In the face of the fast-growing “tech bull”, some institutions believe that overestimating technology stocks, although potentially risky, pay more attention to performance growth; there are also institutions that are relatively cautious and choose a combination of high-selling gains in the short term.
In the medium and long term, investors are more determined that China ‘s new core assets will most likely appear in the high-tech field in the future.
In the view of Southern Information Innovation Fund Manager Zheng Xiaoxi, the country’s achievements are well understood. No matter what the emerging strategic industrial plan is continuously introduced or the rapid launch of the science and technology board, it reflects the high-level determination and promotion of the development of “hard technology”.Urgency, policy, talent, funds, resources, etc. are all pouring into these areas.
Like many high-quality technology companies such as Apple and Amazon in the U.S. stock market, which have outperformed the market for a long period of time, China’s technology stocks are starting to take off, catalyzed by the transformation of the country’s cultivation of a new economy and the outbreak of this crisis.
From conservative to radical Spring Festival, Wang Yuan (pseudonym), a private equity fund manager in South China, decisively adjusted positions.
Affected by the new crown virus epidemic, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index plunged 7 on the first trading day (February 3) after the holiday.
7%, worried that the market will continue to fall, the market value of holdings fell below the early warning line, Wang Yuan “cut the stock at half cost”.
What is left is the infrastructure and cycle sector stocks that are optimistic about it before the holiday. Under the skyrocketing of small and medium-cap stocks, half of his positions are now on 5G and semiconductors.
”The sentiment of the market is on technology stocks, and it is impossible to wait for the traditional industry to slowly ‘crawl’.
At the end of last year, some fund managers copied infrastructure and cycles. They took a long time like me and did not make any money.
It is not possible to go back and buy infrastructure now, the time cost is too high.
Fund managers have to be assessed every six months or three months, and the problem of not making money for six months is very serious.
“Wang Yuan, a conservative investment style, said.
In an interview with the Air Force, Wang Yuan has always adhered to his investment style-petroleum, aviation, infrastructure, nonferrous metals. This time, he turned to the higher-risk technology sector.
A-shares rebounded continuously from February 4th, and the unilateral rise in the next two weeks quickly and quickly recovered the lost ground, and returned to more than 3000 points on February 20th.
The small and medium-sized companies rebounded significantly more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and other broad market indexes. The GEM index hit a three-year high, and the small and medium-sized board index also hit a new high in the past two years.
From the perspective of the industry sector, electronics, computers, and new energy equipment continued to perform better. After the surge in medical health, it fell back. The cyclical sectors such as real estate, steel, and tourism and catering delivery, which were hindered by the impact of the epidemic, performed relatively well.Weaker.
The bifurcated market under the turmoil of the epidemic disrupted the stock layout of a public offering institution in Beijing.
In anticipation of the weak economic recovery in developing countries, the public offering institution focuses on the allocation of cyclical value and financial stocks. At the same time, it is slowly adjusting its strategy-key holdings have increased their operating efforts and reduced their holding costs.Long-term layout opportunities for smaller technology growth sectors.
The public equity institution’s stock strategy analyst believes that in the short term, the technical aspects of funds and market risk appetite determine the short-term market trend.
Initially, the funds raised by stock funds mainly flowed into the technology growth sector. At the same time, the surrounding stock market, especially the NASDAQ market in the United States, continued to grow. The market was generally not optimistic about the consumer service sector. The stock structure funds were also transferred to the technology sector.Run to win the market.
The Economic Observer newspaper interviewed a number of public fund managers and found that the organization did not reduce its positions due to the interruption of resumption of work and the interruption of economic recovery. A fund manager in Shanghai found out to reporters that the position before the holiday has always been relatively high. Although there were distortions in the market on the first trading day after the holiday, there was only some worry on that day. Later, the emotional impact has been released on the same day.After that, the market has gradually stabilized and recovered, and it will not cause a substantial impact on market trends in the medium and long term. Coupled with a series of policy releases, future stock assets are still very attractive, and not only have they not lightened their operations,I also selected appropriate positions on some oversold stocks.
An equity fund manager of a medium-sized public equity 南京夜网 institution in Beijing also stated that it did not carry out substantial operations in investment operations, and it was still optimistic about the investment targets it had held, earning long-term industry development and company growth money.
The fund manager of another large fund company said that the short-term operation is to stay in place and increase tolerance for the transition. After the implementation of the new financing regulations, some companies have received funds to support related industries, and at the same time, they have appropriately increased their positions.Plate.
According to the statistics of the stock positions of the National Fund Securities Public Offering Fund, as of February 17, the position of stock funds was 91.
55%, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.
42%, including 181 funds to increase positions and 87 funds to reduce positions.
The overall position of the hybrid fund is 72.
08%, an increase of about 1 last quarter.
29%, of which 1,300 funds increased positions and 724 lightened funds.
According to the calculation of National Gold Securities, among the top ten fund companies under management, recently, 8 subsidiary companies of the company chose to increase their positions, including E Fund, Harvest Fund, GF Fund, Huaxia Fund, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, etc.
The enthusiasm of institutional investors for the “old king” and “new king” has not diminished.
A shares stood at 3000 points on the day of the 20th, and the trading volume exceeded one trillion.
The hot issue of funds, the science and technology theme fund crazy money.
On February 18th, the new fund of Chen Guangming’s Ruiyuan was issued with a plan to raise 6 billion U.S. dollars, with a subscription amount of more than 100 billion that day and a product placement ratio of less than 5%.
Regarding the style of this year’s market, investors’ attention focuses on the battle between the “old king” and the “new king”, that is, the old king represented by liquor and household appliances and the new king represented by technology.
Xuan Yi, chief strategy analyst of Huaxia Fund, believes that in the short term, the new king may be more dominant. The leading style of the market is currently guided by technology stocks. The degree of certainty of the prosperity of the technology industry represented by semiconductors and cloud computing is increasing.
An interview with a series of institutional investors, including public placements, private placements, and insurance funds, found that the current allocation trend of stocks is roughly 5G, semiconductor, new energy, biomedical and other technology growth stocks, and some institutions add warehouse real estate., Infrastructure, banks and other underestimated blue chips, appropriately reduce consumption, transportation, aviation and other sectors of the severely affected by the epidemic.
According to Wind data, the consumer electronics sector has only increased by 3% so far, while the strongest growth is in the strong alcohol, soft drinks, insurance, and airports sectors, which have fallen by 7 respectively.
At 6%, the aviation logistics and food sectors also fell 4% and 2%, respectively.
The market style is extremely differentiated, and the GEM and the main board deviate from the excellence.
The reason is to reduce the compulsory blockade and quarantine measures introduced to control the epidemic, which has gradually stepped up the pace of economic recovery, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased sharply.The severely affected by the epidemic is tourism, catering, consumption, transportation, and 5G, semiconductor and new energy sectors are less affected by the epidemic. On the contrary, under the catalysis of the “housing economy”, remote office has been accelerated, onlineEducation, online healthcare, streaming media, etc. rely on the penetration rate of the electronic technology industry.
Xuan Wei believes that the impact of this epidemic on performance is probably as follows. Catering, tourism and consumption will gradually reduce revenue expectations by 20% -30%. Jewellery and department stores will be reduced by 10% -20%. The influence of liquor will be 10%.The impact of non-alcoholic food is between 5% and 10%, while that of home appliances is the smallest, about 5%.
The market consensus is that the impact of the outbreak on technology stocks is limited, and loose liquidity has also helped push small and medium-sized tickets higher.
Under the policy easing, the elasticity coefficient of technology growth stocks will be more conducive to greater easing policies.
Less than 20 trading days after the holiday, the shift has cut interest rates three times.
On February 3, a long-term record was introduced.
The US $ 2 trillion reverse repurchase operation, while the current 7-day and 14-day reverse repo operation rates fell by 10 basis points.
On February 17th, the 2000 trillion medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and the 100 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation were completed in advance, and the one-year MLF went from 3.
25% down 10 basis points to 3.
On February 20, data released by the National Interbank Funding Center showed that the one-year LPR was 4.
05%, a decrease of 10bp; LPR over 5 years is 4.
75%, down 5 basis points.
The one-year medium-term loan facility (MLF) is the most important “policy interest rate” at present, and it is the basic coordinate that affects the current loan market quoted interest rate (LPR).
This aspect has reduced corporate financing costs, strengthened corporate profits, reorganized, and lowered interest rates have also brought up estimates.
How long can this market last?
Will high-tech feasibility continue to be hot, and will the fast-moving A-share market style switch suddenly?And when will the white horses suppressed by the epidemic stand up?
Fidelity International Fund Manager Zhou Wenqun believes that under the gradual bleak fundamentals outlook this year, the main factor supporting the market now is the expectation of subsequent continuous liquidity release, and whether this expectation will be realized, whether its strength is in place, and liquidityWhere it ends up, these factors may in turn increase market volatility.
Although it is sometimes difficult to judge how long the strength of small-cap stocks will last, the expectation that the economy will bottom out and rise is expected to end.
Estimates of technology stocks are generally relatively high, with some bubbles.
Wind data shows that the integrated circuit board price-earnings ratio is 113 times, the chip plate price-earnings ratio is 103 times, the cloud office price-earnings ratio is 77 times, and the Tesla concept stock market earnings ratio is 53 times.
Computer software, medicine and other sectors performed relatively moderately, and the level of estimation was relatively reasonable or slightly higher.
According to the Economic Observer News reporter, a public offering institution in Beijing has sold information technology stocks spreading short-term gains and some medical and health stocks with higher gains.
Yang Yan, investment director of Shanghai Miqian Investment Management Co., Ltd. believes that the theme of technology stocks this year will not change at least in the first half of the year, but there will definitely be potential risks, and the overall amplitude will not be particularly large.
At this stage, it is most insurable to select technology stocks whose quarterly earnings are accelerating, because at this stage, it is difficult to measure it with absolute estimates based on some sectors and industries of a stock. It is more about whether the performance is still accelerating.
Liu Yannan, general manager of Huazhou Assets, said that the valuation of speculated technology stocks is more valued. Many technology stocks are now 10 times PB and PE 100 times. Excessive consideration is difficult to expect excessive returns.
Under the support of many policies, A shares are expected to emerge from a wave of fast bull market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to between 3,500 and 4,000 points. The sector is optimistic about technology and consumption.
After the resumption of work, consumer stocks will make up, large finance, and traditional manufacturing will resume. Now that market sentiment is so strong, the downside of technology change stocks will not be particularly large.
As for the consumer stocks that have fallen sharply recently, the equity fund manager of a medium-sized public equity institution in Beijing said that due to the recent epidemic and other factors, the short-term direct impact on listed companies such as tourism, catering, hotels, and aviation has been extensive, and it has affected some manufacturingThe resumption of work in the industry has also caused a certain impact, but other short-term factors have not changed the overall economic development, nor will it change the market’s long-term stable growth trend. At present, we can see that the inflection point of more and more growth rates is getting closer., Comprehensive resumption of work and economic activities will return to normal, and the market will return to its original track.
Many institutions believe that in the long run, China’s future economy will be dominated by technology and consumption.
Fidelity International Fund Manager Zhou Wenqun said that in the short to medium term, the consumer sector will indeed have some pressure in the segmented technology / medical and other industries in the economic downturn.
The recent market interpretation of the epidemic situation has seen a clear differentiation between consumption and technology: bearish on consumption and more on technology.
Zhou Wenqun stated that its goals are relatively standard, the market is expecting too much from 5G and other attractions, and the downside risk to technology demand (such as the mobile phone industry chain) is not enough. In the short term, the technology sector is estimated to be high.
In addition to the favorable liquidity of industrial transformation and upgrading, the surge in technology stocks also benefited from new opportunities for the acceleration of China’s industrial upgrading catalyzed by the epidemic crisis.
The rapid change of A-share style this time is the market’s preemptive response to China’s economic structural transformation and industrial upgrading.
Although China’s economy is almost stagnant due to the epidemic, a series of policies and changes are catalyzing the rapid rise of China’s new economy.
Sun Jianbo, general manager of China Reading Capital, observed that the epidemic affected all face-to-face industries that required rent and entities, while the Internet and the new economic service model suddenly increased the penetration rate.
For example, it may have turned out that the elderly did not like online shopping. Many people interfered with video conferences, but now they have accepted them. Telemedicine has also proven to be reliable.
For the technology industry, the biggest risk is that society is changing too slowly.
This epidemic brought about a change in concept and a major infiltration of the mobile Internet. This infiltration is unprecedented and there is no dead end.
The implication of this penetration on investment is that the application of new technology has accelerated, and the profits of related companies have been greatly advanced.
Distance education used to cost a lot of money, and now it may soon be profitable.
The market, which took many years to develop, suddenly developed.
Sun Jianbo said that the opportunity for growth stocks is expected to happen, and this epidemic has made people discover that conversion is catalyzed and converted, whether it is the use itself or the technology itself.
Catalyzed by the epidemic, some companies are actively seeking change.
Catering company Xibei launched an online sales platform and takeaway platform to help itself. The company’s WeChat and DingDao quickly expanded their servers to meet the surge in online office market demand.
Many online education institutions offer online courses for free, increasing the number of users quickly.
The surge in online demand has led to the acceleration of 5G substrates.
If SARS has taught Chinese people how to buy and sell goods online, then the new crown pneumonia epidemic is teaching more people to buy and sell services online and work remotely.
UBS Securities believes that the scarcity of expected growth, we are still optimistic about the structural shifters after the epidemic, namely the digital ecosystem.
Prospects selected in our model portfolio include brokers, building materials / industrial, medical equipment and technology companies, who are participants in policy relaxation / stimulus.
Domestic investors are overweighting the Chinese technology sector, and domestic investors appear to be more sensitive to the long-term growth triggered by the new crown pneumonia epidemic: the digitalization of households, businesses, and governments is rising.
Institutional investors are full of expectations for China’s new economy.
In the view of Huang Xingliang, the fund manager of Wanjia Industry, a new global industry cycle has begun, and 5G-connected Internet of Everything will have great room for future expectations. Through the breakthrough development of technology companies in recent years, many domestic competitionSexual companies, such as consumer electronics, LCD panels, and drones, are among the top echelons in the world, and their facial recognition penetration rate far exceeds the market.
At the same time, Huang Xingliang believes that China has the world’s largest application consumer market, which is the backing for the development of domestic technology companies.
From the perspective of policy support, considering trade frictions and technological competition, the problem facing the policy is to support and attach importance to the growth and development of local technology companies, and each company has invested heavily in research and development.The development of domestic technology companies is likely to exceed investor expectations.
The unexpected performance of related companies in the future will become the main source of excess income.
The investment directions that Xinhua Asset Management focuses on are divided into two categories-stable profits and growth.
For example, large consumption is a typical stable profitable industry, and subdividing the electronic sector is a typical growth industry. Supporting the development of the electronics industry is in line with the country’s strategic guidance for economic transformation and upgrading.
From the perspective of industry development trends, the electronics industry is moving from a demographic dividend industry to a higher value chain, and a large number of invisible champions are on the rise. It can be expected that the domestic electronics industry chain will continue to prosper from a long cycle.
Many investors worry that technology stock estimates are high.
However, Zheng Xiaoxi, Manager of Southern Information Innovation Fund, believes that in the early 1970s, a large number of high-quality leading companies emerged in the U.S. stock market, and more importantly, high-quality technology companies that outperformed the market over a long period of time. This has a good mapping effect on the development of the domestic market:In the future, new core assets will most likely appear in the high-tech field.
Zheng Xiaoxi said that the logic behind it is that China’s industrial upgrading is on the brink of completion. Only after completing the industrial upgrading can it have the opportunity to cross the “middle income trap” and improve its international competitiveness.
In addition, since last year, trade frictions have referred to China’s “import substitution” as a very urgent agenda, and industrial upgrading and import substitution all depend on the development of technology companies.
The country understands this very clearly, policies, talents, funds, resources, etc. are pouring into these areas, and the industry is fully prepared, so it is optimistic about the prospects of the future science and technology field.
Furthermore, with the increasing influx of foreign countries, the valuation of A-share assets may gradually be aligned with that of U.S. stocks.
In Zheng Xiaoxi’s view, 2019 is the initial stage of information technology investment. The upgrade of the 5G communication system may bring a new wave of technology.
At present, it is still early in the 3-5 year cycle, so it is optimistic about investment opportunities in information technology innovation in the medium and long term.